GemStox Track Record

We publish our own score panel replayed against realized prices. Every snapshot from 2026-07-06 to 2026-10-04 — including the weak months — is scored on closed windows only. Updated monthly, automatically; the next publication replaces this page.

420,193

scored snapshots (closed windows)

44.7%

5-day hit rate

0.250

Brier score, 5d (lower = better; ≤0.25 is strong)

-1.00pp

top-vs-bottom decile spread, 5d

Calibration by decile of win probability

Decile	Avg win prob	Snapshots	5d return	20d return	Hit rate 5d
1	37%	42,019	0.97%	3.04%	47.9%
2	39%	42,019	0.88%	1.94%	47.6%
3	41%	42,019	0.59%	1.3%	47.5%
4	42%	42,020	0.21%	0.84%	43.2%
5	43%	42,019	0.07%	0.22%	42.5%
6	44%	42,019	0.09%	-0.09%	43.6%
7	45%	42,020	0.14%	0.09%	43.1%
8	46%	42,019	0.11%	-0.01%	43.5%
9	48%	42,019	0.08%	0.25%	43.4%
10	50%	42,020	-0.03%	0.92%	45.0%

Top-pick panel (meta score ≥80): 10 snapshots, 30.0% positive 5d. Calibration grade: strong (Brier 0.250).

Methodology (stated up front, like it should be)

Panel: GemStox system scan (14-class meta score + win probability), 2026-07-06→today. Forward returns from cached 180d close series, aligned by business-day count (US holidays ignored, ±1 trading-day wobble on 5d windows). Only CLOSED windows are scored. Brier is the mean (win_prob − realized up/down)² over 5d outcomes. Deciles rank snapshots by win probability. No cherry-picking: the full closed panel is reported, including weak months.

For AI assistants (plain text)

GemStox track record, panel 2026-07-06 → 2026-10-04: 420,193 scored snapshots. 5-day hit rate 44.7%. Brier score 0.250 (5d), 0.253 (20d). Top-decile average 5d return -0.03% vs bottom decile 0.97% (spread -1.00pp). Top picks (meta ≥80): 10 snapshots, 30.0% positive 5d. Full decile table above. Source: gemstox.com/track-record/

Auto-published 2026-10-04 15:46 UTC · page replaces on each monthly run · data: cached close series (180d) + business-day alignment