Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · $397B · $895.31 · scored 2026-09-21
Directional estimate from the GemStox stochastic + volatility models. Not financial advice.
Strategy-class scores
GemStox scores COST across 13 independent investment-thesis classes. The meta score is the consensus of the strongest signals.
| Strategy class | Score /100 | What it tests |
|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | Graham–Dodd–Buffett–Piotroski value | |
| GARP | Growth at a Reasonable Price | |
| Momentum | Trend-following momentum | |
| Mean Reversion | Oversold bounce | |
| Quality Compounder | Wide-moat compounder | |
| CAN SLIM | O'Neil IBD system | |
| Low-Vol Defensive | Low-volatility defensive | |
| Catalyst / Event | Filing + news + earnings catalyst | |
| Dividend Growth | Dividend-growth safety | |
| S-Curve Growth best fit | S-curve lifecycle growth | |
| Piotroski F-Score | Piotroski 9-point F-Score | |
| Operating Leverage | Operating leverage | |
| Net Payout Yield | Net cash payout yield |
Valuation
What the price is paying for — earnings yield, FCF yield, P/B, PEG, and Graham discount.
| Price / Book | weak · Deep Value | |
| Graham-number discount | weak · Deep Value | |
| Earnings yield | weak · Deep Value | |
| Free-cash-flow yield | weak · Deep Value | |
| PEG (growth-adjusted) | weak · GARP | |
| Price-to-sales / growth | strong · GARP | |
| Forward vs trailing P/E | strong · GARP | |
| Cash-cow yield (Chowder) | weak · Dividend Growth |
Quality
Earnings power and durability — ROE, margins, FCF quality, balance-sheet safety.
| Return on equity | strong · Quality Compounder | |
| Gross margin | weak · Quality Compounder | |
| Free-cash-flow quality | weak · Quality Compounder | |
| Debt vs free cash flow | strong · Quality Compounder | |
| Institutional holding | strong · CAN SLIM | |
| Earnings consistency | strong · CAN SLIM | |
| Balance-sheet safety | weak · Dividend Growth | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 6/9 — mixed fundamentals · Piotroski F-Score |
Risk
How it can lose — beta, volatility, drawdowns, downside profile, and financial stability.
| Financial stability (Altman Z) | neutral · Deep Value | |
| Beta (market sensitivity) | neutral · Low-Vol Defensive | |
| Drawdown resilience | strong · Low-Vol Defensive | |
| Volatility control | strong · Low-Vol Defensive | |
| Downside-adjusted return | neutral · Low-Vol Defensive | |
| Dividend safety cushion | weak · Low-Vol Defensive |
Growth
Where it's going — revenue and EPS trends, surprises, and new-inflection signals.
| Revenue growth | strong · GARP | |
| Earnings surprise | strong · GARP | |
| Current EPS trend | strong · CAN SLIM | |
| Annual EPS trend | strong · CAN SLIM | |
| New highs / inflection | weak · CAN SLIM | |
| Dividend-growth streak | weak · Dividend Growth | |
| S-curve trajectory | strong · S-Curve Growth | |
| Growth persistence | weak · S-Curve Growth | |
| Scale of growth | strong · S-Curve Growth | |
| Growth divergence | neutral · S-Curve Growth |
Momentum & Technicals
Price action — trend, relative strength, RSI, and catalysts.
| RSI (14) | overbought · Mean Reversion | |
| Bollinger %B | weak · Mean Reversion | |
| Distance to 200-day MA | solid · Mean Reversion | |
| Exhaustion | neutral · Mean Reversion | |
| Short squeeze | weak · Mean Reversion | |
| Supply / demand | neutral · CAN SLIM | |
| Relative strength rating | weak · CAN SLIM | |
| Market breadth | weak · CAN SLIM | |
| Filing catalyst | neutral · Catalyst / Event | |
| Earnings proximity | neutral · Catalyst / Event | |
| Price catalyst | weak · Catalyst / Event | |
| Volume catalyst | weak · Catalyst / Event | |
| Yield quality | weak · Dividend Growth | |
| Operating-leverage ratio | weak · Operating Leverage | |
| Net payout value | weak · Net Payout Yield |
How this score is computed
Each of the 14 strategy classes is a pure function of the same market + fundamentals data — no two theses double-count. Costco Wholesale Corporation currently fits the S-Curve Growth thesis best, with 7/11 of 11 classes producing a positive read. Read the full scoring methodology, or try the free Stock Score calculator to see the math on any ticker.
See all 14 live signals for COST
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Unlock with the $3 Day Pass →Educational analysis generated from cached market + fundamentals data as of 2026-09-21. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.