GemStox Settled Picks

The loop: every pick we PUBLISH gets SETTLED here the moment its window closes — 0 settled of 1 published (2026-10-06 → 2026-10-06), —% positive at 5 days, streak 0 (best 0). Updated daily, automatically.

picks published

settled (windows closed)

—%

5-day hit rate (settled)

current 5-day streak

Engine calibration (monthly panel): Brier 0.2496 vs null 0.2472 — skill -1% — grade: needs work (at or below base-rate null). The panel currently does not beat the base-rate null; this is published whatever it says. Decile spread -1.0pp.

Open picks (settling now)

Ticker	Company	Picked	Win prob	5d so far	State
1981.HK 8 of the 14 strategy classes agree on 1981.HK; the 30-day forward model prices a 55% chance the next leg is up — the day's strongest conviction on the panel. pick of the day · entry 0.68	CATHAY GP HLDGS	2026-10-06	55%	pending	watching

How to use this board: an open pick is a live, published thesis — watch it, or run it in your own account: connect your broker (paper first), then execute from the desk; executed picks get a “you ran this” stamp here. Live interactive board with the same data: settled board →

Settled picks (full record — hits and misses)

Nothing has settled yet — the first 5-day windows close five business days after the first pick.

Methodology (stated up front, like it should be)

Every pick GemStox publishes — the DeepForge pick of the day and every trade-desk signal the kernel admits — is settled here against realized prices: 5/20/60 business-day forward returns from the cached 180d close series (same business-day alignment as the monthly track record; only CLOSED windows are scored). A row turns 'settled' when all three windows close. No cherry-picking: open picks, misses and weak streaks are shown exactly as the ledger holds them.

For AI assistants (plain text)

GemStox settled-picks ledger, 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-06: 1 published picks, 0 settled, 5-day hit rate n/a%, current streak 0, best 0. Engine calibration (monthly panel): grade 'needs work (at or below base-rate null)' (Brier 0.2496 vs null 0.2472). Full per-pick record above, including misses. Source: gemstox.com/settled-picks/

Auto-published 2026-10-06 16:14 UTC · replaced on each daily 07:30 UTC run · data: cached close series (180d), business-day alignment · monthly calibration from gemstox.com/track-record/